Tomorrow is October 1st. Usually, October is the start of the holiday sales drive. Sure, the pressure truly turns up a notch in November — and especially during the Thanksgiving week — but retailers love to lock in some early sales boosts. And for those who like to get their holiday shopping done early, they are often rewarded with as good or better deals than crunch time. Plus, several stores allow items purchased in October to be returned in January, beyond their usual 30 day returns.
But, of course, it’s 2020, and nothing is normal in 2020.
So, this will not be a normal holiday shopping season. Unemployment is still very high, and coronavirus worries have people on guard. While you can watch any holiday movie and see beleaguered protagonists making their way through the busy crowds in the local stores, this year, businesses would be open to heavy criticism if not legal jeopardy.
However, stores can monitor everyday foot traffic, but of course, there’s one weekend that stands out in shoppers’ minds: the Thanksgiving holiday weekend. Can you imagine the poor employees trying to manage crowds like this
or this
in 2020? Approximately 116 million Americans went shopping last year during the Thanksgiving/Black Friday weekend — in other words, one-third of the country.
Over the years, partly to spread out the crowds and mostly to rack up some additional sales, some stores have shifted Black Friday (once the biggest shopping day of the year) to start on Thanksgiving. But while some stores have always closed on Thanksgiving, retailers that have traditionally been open (in part or in full) are changing their minds this year. Walmart was the first of these chains to announce they would be closed on Thanksgiving, and soon other major retailers like Target and Best Buy joined in.
Of course, just staying closed for those 24 or so hours doesn’t mean Black Friday is cancelled, but retailers have already been prepping for a different strategy this year. Online shopping is already a major component of the Thanksgiving weekend shopping spree — after all, “Cyber Monday” really cemented around 2014 as a day for good deals — but it’s likely going to be the primary focus this year. Stores like Amazon are setting records in sales due to people wanting to shop from the safety and security of their homes. It’s not just getting items shipped to doorsteps either. Macy’s, for instance, thinks curbside pickup will be “a big secret weapon” for them. That same article also mentions they may begin their Black Friday marketing as soon as Halloween is over.
That’s not too surprising. Stores put their Halloween candy displays “two to four weeks earlier” than usual this year. Home Depot has stated their Black Friday deals will go on for about two months: “Its stores will be open on Black Friday, but shoppers will have less of a reason to rush in, since the same deals will be available from early November through December and on its website, too.”
So while we are currently in a recession, and recessions often lead to better deals because stores need to make sales and get rid of merchandise, this year, I imagine the deals won’t be as good. Another reason is the holiday surcharges on shipping packages. USPS is starting October 18th with their temporary price hikes for commercial customers, and UPS and FedEx will follow in November.
That means businesses, who negotiate with the carriers for a lower rate in exchange for a larger volume of shipments, will have to pay more — up to $5 in some cases. In a world where free shipping is considered a must by customers, even a small increase of $.25 a package can add up. Food gift baskets, for instance, are a popular item to give, but global food prices are still rising. So stores will have either have to (no pun intended) eat into their profits, or they must pass the increase onto the customer.
But for a lot of people, there’s no way to beat the stores’ commercial shipping discounts. And even if businesses require a higher threshold for free shipping or if the item is not quite as marked down as they would like, the free shipping beats other alternatives. Especially this year, for the convenience.
But anyway, while those increased rates already have a start date, the holiday shopping season’s start is up in the air. Best Buy started free shipping on all orders on October 22nd last year, with Target starting November 1st. But retailers have two more factors to consider in making their plans.
First is Halloween. While Halloween falling on a Saturday would mean a full day of costuming fun any other year, it’s 2020. While cities like Los Angeles have faced public outcry over trying to cancel the holiday, at the very least, businesses and organizations are going to limit their celebrations and gatherings compared to the usual. Heck, many kids are only attending school online, so there’s not even much of reason for many kids to buy an outfit to show off to their friends, let alone neighbors. If Halloween sales are low throughout this month, this may spur retailers to kick off the holiday season early.
The second factor is the US election. Without getting all political, no doubt this will be a high-turnout, high-energy election. With some states allowing extended time to process the record number of mail-in ballots, it could be several days — or even a couple of weeks — to determine who the next president is. This period of uncertainty could affect consumer confidence. Even if a winner is able to be declared on November 4th with relative scientific confidence, the result could cause a lot of anger and disbelief. Perhaps there will be peaceful protests that can cause slight delays on some commutes, or some bad-faith actors could cause trouble and make it impossible to shop in many areas.
Also consider the fact that the last Saturday before the election, which will be an early voting day for many states, is Halloween. So a lot of people could be planning on spending the day standing in line since it’s the weekend and much more convenient than trying to hit the polls before or after work on Tuesday.
So, all in all, who knows what kind of holiday shopping season it will be. I mean, my nearby FYE has been closed for months and only reopened a couple of weeks ago. That means they have tons of stock, but they also need to make up for all of that lost revenue. Hot Topic sent me two free $15 off $30 Hot Cash codes, which I’ve never received before. Could the numbers there be really bad?
Probably the only thing we can predict is that gamers can probably score some good deals. Sony and Microsoft will almost assuredly mark down the Xbox One and PlayStation 4 consoles, as they do every year, but especially now as their new systems hit the market.
As for rival Nintendo, stores will likely discount a lot of 3DS games to make room. Switch consoles have been hard to come by throughout the year, but stock problems seem to be leveling out. Even the limited edition Animal Crossing: New Horizons version has finally gotten another wave. It’s possible there will be a pack-in game for the Switch along the lines of the Mario Kart 8 Deluxe bundle last year, but it also might be easier for Nintendo to just team up with stores and offer a physical copy or a memory card with purchase instead of creating a new SKU this year. Or maybe even just over Black Friday weekend there could be a $20, $25 price discount (or gift cards/coupons with purchase like GameStop did last year), especially if the rumors of an upgraded Switch are true.
Otherwise, a lot of the usual toy, electronic, and clothing deals could range from bad to meh to very good. It’s going to be a difficult balance this year for retailers to both get customers to show up while also preventing too many of them showing up at once.